AGP Executive Report

Bulgarian Waste Policy: The Bulgarian Recycling Association is pushing back hard against proposed cuts to product fees for electrical and electronic equipment, warning the four-to-five-fold reductions could destabilize Bulgaria’s waste system, raise illegal dumping, and shift costs to citizens and municipalities. Regional Investment Push: Pernik has launched an “Invest Pernik” portal and a free network of investment ambassadors to help local and foreign investors with practical information and introductions. Food Prices Ease: Bulgaria’s wholesale food prices dipped over the past week, with major drops in tomatoes and red peppers, while some dairy and butter rose. Security & Military Signals: Bulgaria says two US KC-135 refueling tankers have left Bezmer Air Base after Iran’s anger over their deployment, easing immediate threat perceptions. EU Funding Fraud Case: Bulgaria’s EPPO charged a vineyard owner over alleged false declarations to claim nearly €350,000 under an EU vineyard restructuring scheme. Energy Pressure from Water Levels: Bulgaria is again linked to plans to curb nuclear output at Kozloduy due to low Danube water levels. Cyber/Finance Risk: A Reuters report highlights how Binance customer records can remain usable in foreign prosecutions even after an exchange exits a country.

Food Prices: Bulgaria’s wholesale food market cooled further: the Wholesale Market Price Index fell 1.21% week-on-week to 2.292 points, with sharp drops for tomatoes (-28.01% to EUR 0.91/kg) and red peppers (-17.52% to EUR 1.29/kg), while some items rose, including green peppers (+9.52% to EUR 1.15/kg) and onions (+3.45% to EUR 0.66/kg. EU Funding Fraud: The EPPO charged a vineyard owner in Bulgaria over an attempted €348,231.64 claim using false harvest declarations for 2020-2022, with no wine-grape production declaration filed for 2020 so no money was paid out. Energy & Water Stress: Low Danube levels are forcing output cuts at Kozloduy: officials said Unit 1 will be reduced by about 120 MW to protect safe cooling, with the broader heat-and-drought impact spreading across the region’s nuclear operations. Euro Transition Watch: BNB Governor Dimitar Radev said Bulgaria’s euro entry was technically smooth, but stability now depends on consistent policy choices affecting prices, credit access and savers’ security. Minimum Wage Talks: No tripartite deal was reached on 2027 minimum wage; the upper proposal was EUR 672.80, with the final figure set by government after further dialogue. Security Tensions: Bulgaria said two US KC-135 tankers left Bezmer after Iran-linked threat reports, easing immediate perceptions while Iran warned it could target US bases in Europe including Bulgaria, according to media reports. Local Investment Push: Pernik launched an investment portal (investpernik.com) and a free “Investment Ambassadors” network to help domestic and foreign investors with local business conditions. Crypto Compliance Fallout: Reuters reported how Binance’s archived customer data left behind after its Russia exit was later used in a Russian terrorism-financing case involving a Bulgarian resident.

Security & Defense: Bulgaria says two US KC-135 refueling tankers have left Bezmer Air Base after Iran-linked threat reports, easing immediate perceptions even as Tehran keeps accusing Sofia of enabling “aggression.” Energy & Power: Drought and record-low Danube levels are forcing Kozloduy to cut output (Unit 5 down ~120 MW) to protect cooling operations, with officials stressing no nuclear-safety crisis. Tourism Policy: Bulgaria is pushing tourism reforms for resort infrastructure and investment, including changes to the Tourism Act on how municipalities use tourist-tax revenue and updates to categorization standards. Labor & Wages: No tripartite deal was reached on the 2027 minimum wage level, but the mechanism for setting it is moving forward after social partners aligned on criteria. Business & Investment: Pernik launched an “Invest Pernik” portal and an investment ambassadors network to help investors with free, non-intermediated guidance. Competition Watch: Bulgaria’s competition regulator uncovered a bid-rigging cartel in construction equipment tenders, involving coordinated pricing and bid exchanges. Eurozone Banking: BNB Governor Dimitar Radev says the euro transition was successful, but stability now depends on consistent policy decisions.

Euro Transition Watch: BNB Governor Dimitar Radev says Bulgaria’s euro switch was technically smooth, but warns public trust will hinge on everyday outcomes like prices, credit access and saving security. Minimum Wage Talks: No tripartite deal reached on 2027 Bulgaria’s minimum wage; unions pushed toward the upper range (up to EUR 672.80) while employers proposed lower levels, with the final figure set by government. Energy & Water Stress: Bulgaria’s Kozloduy is cutting output at Unit 5 by about 120 MW as Danube levels fall; officials stress it’s preventive and not a nuclear safety issue, while monitoring continues. Tourism Reform: Golden Sands talks set up Tourism Act changes: municipalities must ring-fence at least 50% of tourist-tax revenue for events and transport connectivity, plus plans to update resort rules and tax treatment for private Black Sea apartments. Competition Crackdown: Bulgaria’s competition regulator uncovered a bid-rigging cartel in construction equipment tenders, alleging coordinated bids and pricing via information sharing. Security Council Pressure: President Iliana Iotova faces calls to convene Bulgaria’s top security body over reports of Iran assessing strikes on US assets at Bezmer air base, despite NATO reassurance. Border Control: Bulgarian border police detained 35 Afghan nationals found in a van attempting irregular entry, with migrants held up to seven days at screening centers under new rules.

Iran Threat to Bulgaria’s Bezmer Base: NATO chief Mark Rutte told Prime Minister Rumen Radev the alliance is ready to respond to any attack on a member, after reports said Iran considered striking US assets in southeast Europe, including Bulgaria’s Bezmer air base. Presidential Pressure: Bulgaria’s President Iliana Iotova faces mounting calls to convene the Consultative Council for National Security over the reported threat, as authorities say there is no direct national security risk. Tourism Reform Push: At Golden Sands, the Tourism Act is set to be amended so municipalities earmark at least 50% of tourist-tax revenue for events and transport connectivity, with more transparency and a clearer legal status for national resorts. Black Sea Tourism Demand Shift: Incoming agencies report last-minute bookings dominate this summer, mostly within 3–4 weeks, driven by economic uncertainty and higher prices across Europe. Competition Watchdog: Bulgaria’s competition regulator uncovered a bid-rigging cartel in construction equipment tenders, alleging coordinated bids by O-Rent and Ingconsult/Zemekop from 2022 to early 2024. Energy Under Drought Stress: Kozloduy N-plant will cut Unit 5 output by about 120 MW as the Danube level falls, with the energy minister stressing the situation is controlled. Labour Deal for Brewers: A new sectoral collective agreement extends better pay and working conditions across Bulgaria’s brewing industry until 2028, setting minimum wages for 2026. Security Briefing on Cobasna: SIS and AIM released figures saying the Cobasna depot’s net explosive quantity is far lower than earlier claims, describing the risk as limited and controlled.

Danube Drought Hits Energy: Bulgaria’s Kozloduy nuclear plant will cut Unit 5 output by about 120 MW (around 12%) as Danube water levels plunge, with the ministry calling it an unprecedented safety step. Water Levels Expose Reality on the Ground: The Danube has fully receded at the Vidin–Kalafat Bridge, exposing sandbanks and small water bodies and drawing locals to the newly visible riverbed. Euro-Atlantic Security Tensions: PM Rumen Radev spoke with NATO chief Mark Rutte about the security environment, with Iran-related risk concerns in focus; GERB leader Boyko Borissov then demanded answers and questioned why the Consultative Council for National Security wasn’t convened. Money Laundering “Grey List” Push: Radev said Bulgaria’s anti-money laundering and anti-corruption actions strengthen its case to exit the FATF grey list ahead of the upcoming reporting and FATF visit. Eurovision 2027 Funding & Host Debate: The state earmarked EUR 20 mln for Eurovision preparations through end-2026 as Burgas ramps up work and Sofia seeks transparency on why its bid lost. Local Governance & Investment: Sofia Mayor Vassil Terziev said he expects partnership, not praise, and flagged stalled capital projects after the government’s first 100 days. Cybercrime Watch: A crypto phishing operation using AI-assisted fake wallet apps targeted hundreds of thousands of phone numbers, including a Bulgaria-linked dataset. Defense Procurement Update: Lockheed Martin reported delays to Bulgaria’s F-16 Block 70 deliveries, pushing eight jets to Q2 2030.

F-16 Delivery Crunch: Lockheed Martin says Bulgaria’s second batch of eight F-16 Block 70 jets will slip, with deliveries pushed to Q2 2030 (from 2027), raising pressure on training, spare parts and combat readiness. Energy Under Stress: Kozloduy NPP will cut output by about 12% on Friday due to record-low Danube water levels, the first such reduction in 52 years; Hungary and Serbia have also seen power impacts from the same hydrology. Black Sea Security & Trade: Romania destroyed an explosive-laden marine drone near the Neptun Deep gas project, highlighting growing risks to critical infrastructure; meanwhile, Black Sea wheat shipments are disrupted, pushing Asian buyers to consider costlier alternatives. Iran Threat Debate: Bulgaria’s political opposition is demanding more transparency after reports Iran may consider retaliation scenarios involving Bulgaria’s Bezmer air base, while NATO reiterates readiness to defend allies. Fuel & Costs: Diesel prices in Bulgaria rose nearly 10% over the past month, while fuel across grades also ticked up. Business & Investment: Bulgaria and Indonesia discussed technology transfer and joint production in high-tech, drones and space-related sectors. Crypto Crime Watch: A Rapid7 report flags a crypto phishing campaign targeting about 885,000 phone numbers, including Bulgaria. Food Safety: Bulgaria seized over two tonnes of food of unknown origin at an illegal market in the southwest, with vendors facing penalties.

Bulgaria Election Watch: Bulgaria’s Foreign Ministry invited OSCE/ODIHR and several European parliamentary bodies to observe the Oct 25, 2026 presidential and vice-presidential vote, after the Council of Ministers set the election preparations and the CEC adopted the timeline. Security & Defence: A Financial Times report that Iran assessed striking US assets in Europe—naming Bulgaria’s Bezmer Air Base—triggered political pushback and fresh measures: Bulgaria’s Defence Minister said there is no direct national security threat, while GERB and Yes, Bulgaria criticized the government’s response and demanded clearer briefings; NATO reiterated it is ready to defend allies. Regional Support: Greece is evaluating whether to help Bulgaria with Patriot air-defence, including possible Patriot relocation within Greece, as Athens raises its alert level over the same Iran-related risk. EU Business Policy: The EU’s new FDI screening regulation entered into force, with member states to implement it by Jan 2028, shaping how cross-border deals in sensitive sectors get reviewed. Public Works Funding: The government approved an extra EUR 150m transfer to the Regional Development Ministry for 2026 municipal projects, aiming for faster, more transparent spending. Inflation Snapshot: Cyprus reported 4.4% annual inflation in July 2026, among the highest in the EU, and opened a consultation on minimum tax rule changes for large groups. Tech & Startups: Bulgarian tech entrepreneur Ventsislav (Vince) Gaydarzhiev’s new company Self Inspection raised $10m for an AI platform for remote vehicle inspections, with Oakley Capital’s US-linked investors also involved.

Security & Defence: NATO says it is ready to “address any threat” after the Financial Times reported Iran has considered striking US-linked military assets in Europe, naming Bulgaria’s Bezmer Air Base and Cyprus; Bulgaria’s Interior Minister Ivan Demerdzhiev says Sofia has taken “all possible measures” and is monitoring the situation continuously. Regional Posture: Greece is weighing contingency steps, including relocating a Patriot battery and potentially supporting Bulgaria’s air defence if requested, while Cyprus and the UK stress Akrotiri is protected and “not a target.” Diplomacy & Politics: GERB calls for Bulgaria to summon Iran’s ambassador for an official explanation, arguing the government has downplayed the risk. Defence Procurement: Bulgaria’s F-16 Block 70 deliveries may slip from end-2027 to Q2 2030 due to production difficulties, with Sofia seeking assurances on price and capability continuity. Energy & Trade: Bulgaria says it is ready to consult Kyiv on increasing gas transit volumes through its territory. Economy & Prices: Eurostat data show EU greenhouse gas emissions rose 0.3% in Q1 2026, while inflation remains a pressure point across the region (Romania highest in the EU in July; Bulgaria and Cyprus at 4.4%). Business: Omaya Yachts appoints Jean Paul Vaele head of commercial to expand internationally. Transport: Sofia metro Line 3 extension opens, expected to cut road traffic locally by up to 25%. EU Policy Watch: The UN urges platforms to take more responsibility for children’s online safety, warning against unregulated AI and attention-harvesting business models.

AI & Investment: Graphwise, a Bulgarian open-source graph database startup, says it has secured a major investment from Oakley Capital to expand globally, boost go-to-market and pursue acquisitions. Cyber & Finance: A ransomware affiliate dubbed “Ransom Busters” claims it can delete stolen data and asks victims for $20,000–$60,000, while separate reporting says Binance shared Russian-linked crypto transaction data tied to alleged Ukraine-related terrorism financing. Minimum Wage Politics: Bulgaria’s minimum wage formula debate continues, with the CC party arguing 2027 should reach about EUR 690.44 under the old method, while social partners discuss a new mechanism expected to keep 2027 increases in single digits. Healthcare Accountability: Bulgaria’s chief health inspector proposes doctors who recorded MMR vaccinations without antibodies should cover treatment costs for affected children and sick notes for parents. Water Infrastructure: Pleven and Lovech will get a new main water pipeline after the current one is deemed unfit, with officials citing decades of poor planning and ongoing work to avoid rationing. Energy & Industry: At Miners’ Day, the energy ministry highlighted Bulgaria’s role in critical raw materials and said the National Geological Fund will be digitized by Dec 2029. Bulgaria–Japan Business: Japanese firms and Bulgarian partners plan joint R&D on drones meeting Japanese requirements, aiming to turn ties into concrete industrial projects. Diplomacy: Zelensky accepted letters of credence from Bulgaria’s newly appointed ambassador to Ukraine, alongside Estonia, India and Germany.

Minimum Wage Talks: Bulgaria’s social partners are aligning on a new minimum-wage mechanism for 2027, with expectations of a rise to roughly €667 (single-digit growth) after years of faster increases. Water Infrastructure: Pleven and Lovech will get a new main water pipeline, while Shumen’s project is flagged for an undersized pipe and a removed pumping station—both pointing to costly planning and execution gaps. Energy & Critical Raw Materials: On Miners’ Day, the energy minister tied mining to EU critical raw materials strategy and said the National Geological Fund will be digitized in stages by Dec 2029. Defense Against Drones: Bulgaria received two counter-drone systems from Axon and expects more, as a recent drone incursion renewed scrutiny of air surveillance gaps. Foreign Policy & Aid: Bulgaria will prioritize official development assistance for Ukraine, Moldova and the Western Balkans through 2029, alongside support for Bulgarian firms in high-value sectors. Cybersecurity: A ransomware affiliate “Ransom Busters” claims it hacked servers and offers paid “recovery” for $20,000–$60,000. Bulgaria-Japan Tech: Bulgarian and Japanese logistics and drone firms plan joint R&D on drones meeting Japanese requirements.

Minimum Wage Talks: Bulgaria’s social partners kept negotiating the 2027 minimum wage mechanism after a five-hour meeting at the Finance Ministry, with the formula still pending once NSI median-wage data is released; the current floor is EUR 620.20 and the final range will be set using four equally weighted indicators. Inflation Update: Bulgaria’s annual inflation eased to 4.5% in July, with monthly CPI up 0.8%, led by recreation/sport/culture and housing-related costs. Energy & Industry: The Danube’s record low levels are forcing technical measures to keep Kozloduy NPP running smoothly, while Energo-Pro said it has launched a new solar farm in Bulgaria. Digital Health Gap: Bulgaria still lacks a clear reimbursement pathway for digital therapeutics, leaving it behind EU peers that already reimburse software-based treatments. Eurozone Context: Eurostat reported euro area services output rose 0.8% month-on-month in May, supporting the broader demand backdrop for Bulgaria-linked supply chains. Crypto & Compliance Risk: Reuters reports Binance provided Russian investigators with personal and transaction data of a client accused of financing terrorism via crypto donations tied to Ukraine—raising fresh questions for compliance and cross-border data handling. Transport Infrastructure: Regional Development Minister Shishkov said the Black Sea Motorway’s conceptual design and detailed plan should be ready by end-2027 before seeking a concessionaire. Local Business Watch: Plovdiv residents staged another protest defending the Plovdiv International Fair as the state’s 29% stake dispute continues in court.

Crypto & Courts: Binance reportedly shared Russian authorities with a client’s personal data and crypto transaction records used to charge a Bulgarian resident, Yuri Belenkiy, with terrorism financing tied to donations to Ukrainian military-linked groups. Energy & Industry: Energo-Pro launched a new solar farm in Bulgaria, adding to its growing portfolio of PV capacity. Inflation Watch: Bulgaria’s annual inflation eased to 4.5% in July, with monthly CPI up 0.8%. Nuclear Operations: With record-low Danube levels, Kozloduy NPP is adjusting cooling and shore-pump operations while keeping both units at full load. Transport & Cities: Ruse will buy two electric buses for a future cross-border route to Giurgiu, aiming for service by end-2027. Security: Bulgaria received two Axon counter-drone systems and expects two more soon under the EU SAFE instrument after an August 8 drone incident near the Romania border. Labour Market: Bulgaria saw 8,448 job vacancies announced in July and 10,305 people supported by employment services. Capital Markets: Starcom Holding’s EUR 200m bond starts dual trading on the Bulgarian and Frankfurt exchanges via the EuroBridge segment. Eurovision Economy: Burgas is preparing to host Eurovision 2027, with procurement and logistics work already underway.

Crypto Compliance Shock: Reuters reports Binance provided Russian authorities with details of crypto donations used in terrorism-financing charges tied to Ukraine fundraising, despite Binance saying it exited Russia—raising fresh questions for regulators and data rules. Bulgaria Politics & Pay Pressure: GERB and Democratic Bulgaria trade barbs over the Radev Cabinet’s first 100 days, while Labour Minister Nataliya Efremova says Bulgaria’s minimum wage will not stay at the current level in 2027. EU Market Watch: Eurostat says EU greenhouse-gas emissions rose 0.3% in Q1 2026, while GDP stayed broadly flat—another sign growth and emissions are moving differently. Food Prices: Wholesale fruit and veg prices in Bulgaria fell in the week to Aug 14, with big drops in peppers and tomatoes, while some staples like onions and cabbage rose. Transport & Rail: Škoda has delivered 20 electric trains to Bulgaria, entering service after authorisations. Energy & Infrastructure: Regional Development Minister Ivan Shishkov begins a tour of Varna, Dobrich, Shumen and Pleven, focusing on water and sewer infrastructure and road repairs. Security Spillover: Romania shot down a drone breaching its airspace; the incident underlines ongoing risks around Black Sea trade routes.

Government Accountability Clash: Bulgaria’s political parties are trading blows over the Rumen Radev Cabinet’s first 100 days, with GERB saying the “grace period” is over and the government must deliver results, while Democratic Bulgaria calls it a takeover of a failed governance model and Continue the Change argues the old political setup is being restored through appointments. Minimum Wage Outlook: Labour Minister Nataliya Efremova says the 2027 minimum wage will not stay at the current level, pointing to an agreed objective method with social partners. Capital Markets Sanctions: The SEC ordered capital market operators to cut correspondent banking and restrict dealings tied to Iran and North Korea, citing FATF risk updates. Consumer Prices Watch: Wholesale fruit and vegetable prices in Bulgaria fell overall in the week to Aug 14, with sharp drops in peppers and tomatoes, while some staples moved up. Transport & Industry: Škoda has delivered 20 electric trains to Bulgaria, entering service after authorisations, while Bulgaria’s EV uptake remains low despite a 62% jump in new fully electric registrations in 2025. Energy & Trade Risk: Black Sea security concerns continue as Russia-linked threats to maritime trade raise pressure on global food flows. Tourism Policy: Short-term rental apartments will be added to Bulgaria’s Unified Tourism Information System in 2027, alongside plans to steer tourism tax spending toward marketing and connectivity support.

EU Climate & Growth: Eurostat says EU greenhouse gas emissions rose 0.3% in Q1 2026 to about 837m tonnes CO₂e, while GDP was broadly flat, with electricity/gas/steam the biggest driver (+4.8%) and households down (-1.3%). Bulgaria’s Rail Electrification: Škoda has delivered 20 electric multiple units to Bulgaria, entering service after testing and EU vehicle register clearance; the trains run up to 160 km/h and include ETCS Level 2, Wi‑Fi and CCTV. Defence Procurement: Bulgaria’s second batch of eight US F-16 Block 70 jets is now expected no earlier than Q2 2030, with Lockheed Martin citing production difficulties; the first batch aims for combat duty as early as next year. Tourism Policy: Short-term rental apartments will be added to Bulgaria’s Unified Tourism Information System in 2027, while the government also plans tourism tax spending rules and an air-connectivity support fund. Insurance Costs: The Association of Bulgarian Insurers says home and motor compulsory coverage remains broadly affordable, with only some vehicle categories seeing recent price movement. Minimum Wage Talks: Employers and unions are still negotiating 2027 minimum wage methodology; industry warns against double-digit hikes, while unions push for criteria aligned with EU and ILO rules. Food Safety: BFSA ordered the return of an 11.6-tonne pepper shipment from North Macedonia after formetanate residues exceeded limits. Black Sea & Energy: EU data show Belgium leading purchases of Russian LNG in June (+57% y/y), while Bulgaria remains a major buyer of Russian pipeline gas. Local Economy & Events: Varna Day is marked with concerts and sports, with the regional governor calling for clearer priorities and measurable results.